Great Bend, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

215
FXUS63 KICT 062257
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
457 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather is likely for much of the area this afternoon
  into tonight as a strong cold front surges eastward.

- Dry and cool for Saturday followed warmer temperatures and continued
  dry weather Sunday and Monday

- Decent signal for next round of showers/storms to impact the
  area on Tuesday/Tuesday night with strong to severe storms possible

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Currently, the mid/upper level trough is situated over the Rockies
with the surface low across the western Central Plains. The
associated cold frontal boundary extends across western Kansas into
the Upper Midwest. Showers and thunderstorms over southeast Kansas
are finally diminishing. The thick stratus deck that has persisted
over the area is beginning to clear out from west to east as the dry
line and frontal boundary usher in a drier air mass. Ahead of the
frontal boundary in areas where temperatures have reached into
the 70s and some sun has started to break through the clouds,
we`re seeing CAPE values on the order of 2000+ J/kg in south-
central and central Kansas. We`re already seeing towering cu
develop along the frontal boundary in central Kansas. As this
feature progresses eastward, we will see storm development unzip
along the boundary over the next couple hours. The LLJ will
intensify through the early evening hours over eastern Kansas
and as the line of storms moves into this region, we`ll see an
increase in SRH generally along and east of the Turnpike. It is
this area that is highlighted with an Enhanced risk for severe
weather by the SPC with damaging winds and a few tornadoes being
the main hazards. There is also a narrow corridor from south-
central into central Kansas where the dry line is managing to
remain ahead of the frontal boundary where we could see a few
discrete cells develop briefly in the favorable environment. The
cold front does look to overtake the dry line by around 00Z
leading to this becoming a primarily linear storm mode. The
frontal boundary and line of storms will quickly move eastward
across the CWA, exiting the area between 06-09Z.

For the weekend into early next week, zonal flow will take over and
a more stable pattern is expected. Temperatures on Saturday will
cool off behind the front to near normal, with temperatures
rebounding by early next week into the middle to upper 70s. By
Tuesday, strong moisture advection from the Gulf will return with
continued well above normal temperatures. A couple of frontal
boundaries look to dive across the region on Tuesday into Wednesday,
interacting with this warm, moist environment, leading to a
prolonged time frame for shower and thunderstorm development. Given
the time of year and the state of the environment, another chance
for severe weather looks possible with this activity. There`s still
plenty of time to iron out the details of this next event. It does
look like behind this activity, temperatures will take a tumble once
again to near normal for Wednesday. Weak ridging will return for the
end of the week leading to clearing skies and warming temperatures
once again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 452 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A frontal boundary is traversing the area this evening bringing
rain and storms to nearly all TAF sites. The front has cleared
RSL and winds have turned out of the northwest and GBD will have
a threat for storms for the next hour or two before winds turn
northwest. MVFR cigs are expected with the storms, but vis could
fall to IFR levels in the heaviest rain. Activity will clear the
region between 06-09Z with winds turning northwesterly and cigs
lifting across central and south-central Kansas by 12Z. Winds
will diminish below 10 knots areawide around 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

We could see a few areas of marginally very high fire danger on
Sunday and Monday afternoons but much of the region should remain
below those levels.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...AMD
FIRE WEATHER...AMD