Great Bend, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

000
FXUS63 KICT 191117
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
617 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms continue this morning; mainly north of
  Highway 400

- A few storms possible this evening and tonight across central KS

- Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect today through
  Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

As of 330 AM Saturday, isolated showers and storms were ongoing for
areas mainly north of Highway 400. This zone is on the nose of a 30-
35 kt LLJ. Elevated instability is generally in the 500-1000 J/kg
range with effective shear values less than 25 kt. As such, severe
weather is not anticipated this morning. As the LLJ weakens through
8-9 AM, shower and storm coverage will greatly diminish as well.

Transitioning into this afternoon, a hot and humid airmass will
overspread the region with daytime highs in the 90s to low 100s.
Factoring in dew points in the mid to upper 60s will create heat
indices near 105 this afternoon. An Excessive Heat Warning goes into
effect this afternoon for the dangerous heat expected.

By this evening, a frontal zone will sag into northern KS. Upslope
low-level flow across eastern CO and convergence on the front should
result in storm development during the afternoon. Eventual upscale
growth is expected with propagation to the east and southeast. While
this complex may reach central KS late Saturday night/Sunday
morning, increasing inhibition towards the I-135 corridor should
limit further east propagation. Any storm that does enter
central KS will have a damaging wind potential with DCAPE values
approaching 1500 J/kg.

For Sunday and beyond, the midlevel ridge will amplify overhead with
the ridge axis setting up in the central/southern MS valley. A
stagnant airmass is expected with daytime highs in the upper
90s/near 100 degrees. Otherwise, the nocturnal LLJ is expected
across central/south-central KS each night and could result in
isolated storm development, especially towards sunrise each
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms have moved predominately east of the
terminals and dry conditions should prevail for the remainder of
the period. LLWS conditions will continue at all sites except
CNU through 14Z. Southerly winds will increase by mid- morning
to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, especially at CNU, ICT, HUT,
and SLN. A slight chance exists for additional storms across
central KS late this evening into the overnight but the
potential is too low for inclusion at this point.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT
Wednesday for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-
098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF